Listed below are the market odds of candidates winning the presidency, if nominated by their party. They are based on live betting odds from intrade.com, an online prediction market. The site gives odds for each candidate’s chance of winning their party’s primary, as well as their odds of winning the general election.
p. According to Harvard economics professor N. Gregory Mankiw, dividing a candidate’s chance of winning the general election by their odds of winning the primary gives the odds of winning the presidency if nominated.
p. **66 percent**
McCain
p. **66 percent**
Obama
p. **56 percent**
Rudy
p. **56 percent**
Hilary
p. **50 percent**
Fred Thompson
p. **46 percent**
Romney
