Everyone knows the Academy is fickle — shunning indie movies and small comedies in favor of blow-you-away blockbusters and those films about which the studios muster the most Oscar buzz. That’s why I like the way Roger Ebert does his Oscar predictions; he makes two lists: predicted winners and preferred winners. We skeptics may bet one way, but that doesn’t mean we want those results, and so let’s get right down to my list — predicted and preferred.

p. Best Picture: I’m really happy “Little Miss Sunshine” nabbed a nomination, but chances are the Academy will send this sweet, awkward comedy home without Oscar gold. It has two big things working against it: It’s a comedy (they nab nominations but rarely win) and it’s been a long time since it was released in theaters (even though it found a strong second life on DVD). “The Queen” made a good showing among critics and Helen Mirren is a shoe-in for an acting award, but I have a feeling that this film’s slow box office take will work against it. “The Departed,” Martin Scorsese’s latest masterpiece, sports amazing performances from all involved, but Scorsese picked a bad year, pitting his film against forerunners “Letters from Iwo Jima” and “Babel.”

p. While “Letters from Iwo Jima” is, in my opinion, the more amazing movie, “Babel” has a similar appeal as last year’s winner “Crash.” “Babel” features a number of different intersecting story lines, each one carried by wonderful performances from the likes of Golden Globe nominee Brad Pitt and Oscar nominees Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi. Audiences see the film’s events as wholly plausible, adding tremendously to the film’s mass appeal. Granted, “Letters from Iwo Jima” is actually based on true events, but depressing war films tend to have a hard time winning Best Picture (see “Saving Private Ryan”), not to mention that it isn’t in English and no foreign language film has ever won the award.

**Predicted winner: “Babel”**
**Preferred winner: “Letters from Iwo Jima”**

p. Best Actor: This category is a mess this year. The best performance of the year came from Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Departed,” but he got his nomination votes split by doing an excellent job in “Blood Diamond” as well. Problem is, his role in “Blood Diamond” — the one for which he’s nominated — isn’t as spellbinding as his role as an undercover cop, as in Scorsese’s film. It therefore won’t win it for him regardless of whether he did a great job — which he did.

p. Will Smith played the most inspirational man in the world in “The Pursuit of Happyness,” but this movie was so over-advertised that people like myself got sick of him and it, which will hurt his chances. Ryan Gosling is a darkhorse candidate for his role as a drug addicted high school teacher in “Half Nelson.” He is amazing in the film, but it’s rare to pull a major acting award for a movie no one saw and that wasn’t nominated in a single other category.

p. Peter O’Toole is wonderful in “Venus” as an aging actor wooing his best friend’s great-niece, but, while pleasant, he falls short of the kind of breathtaking role that wins Oscars. All bets are on Forest Whitaker taking home the Academy trophy to go along with his Golden Globe for his captivating role as an evil yet charismatic dictator in “The Last King of Scotland.”

**Predicted winner: Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”**
**Preferred winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, “Blood Diamond”**

p. Best Actress: This category is the least contested, as Helen Mirren is, by far, the favorite to take home the Oscar for her role as the ill-directed queen of England following the death of Princess Diana in “The Queen.” She deserves it. That’s not to say the category doesn’t have interesting candidates. Meryl Streep won’t win the award for “The Devil Wears Prada” (again, a comedy), though she yet again dazzles in her role as a self-centered fashion executive. This marks Streep’s 14th Academy Award nomination, and, as always, she completely deserves it.

p. Judi Dench plays a very creepy aging teacher working at a British prep school who builds her life around manipulating younger women into being her friends and soulmates. Dench’s serene portrayal of the obsessive character is chilling. It’s good to see Penelope Cruz receive a nomination for her role in the Spanish film “Volver” — even though I think the best foreign language performance of the year came from young Ivana Baquero in “Pan’s Labyrinth” — but winning an award without speaking English is practically impossible. Lastly, Kate Winslet grabs her fifth nomination and, probably, fifth loss with her role as a cheating wife in “Little Children.” She’s good, but of all her Oscar-nominated roles, this is the weakest.

**Predicted winner: Helen Mirren, “The Queen”**
**Preferred winner: Helen Mirren, “The Queen”**

p. Best Director: This one’s hard. First, let me eliminate the easy ones. There’s no reason beyond sentimentality for Paul Greengrass to be nominated for directing “United 93,” a film that only received one other minor nomination. The Academy seems to love “The Queen,” nominating it six times, but, based on his competition, director Stephen Frears shouldn’t be surprised that this isn’t the film’s strongest category. Clint Eastwood has been nominated for the third time in five years for directing “Letters from Iwo Jima,” the better of the director’s two amazing war films released this year. Martin Scorsese has been nominated for the eighth time for directing “The Departed,” a film pitting an undercover Boston cop against an Irish mafia mole. Eastwood won the award in 2004 for “Million Dollar Baby” and in 1992 for “Unforgiven.”

p. Scorsese, as we all know, has never won. Is this his year? In my opinion, no — but, I don’t think Eastwood will get it either. The Academy rarely splits the Best Director and Best Picture awards between two films. Although they did it last year, giving Ang Lee the award for “Brokeback Mountain,” while “Crash” won Best Picture, who wasn’t shocked by the split? My money is on Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu winning the award for “Babel,” giving the film the clean sweep many believe it deserves. A lot of hope Scorsese will finally win the directing award he has so long deserved and missed — at the very least so that everyone will stop bitching about it — but yet again, this just isn’t his year.

**Predicted winner: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Babel”**
**Preferred winner: Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”**

And of course, what would an Oscars list be without notable snubs? If I had it my way, “Pan’s Labyrinth” and “Children of Men” would be the top contenders for Best Picture, but “Children of Men” was released too sparsely and too late in the year to muster much buzz and “Pan’s Labyrinth” is in Spanish (only eight foreign language films have ever been nominated for the award, including this year’s “Letters from Iwo Jima”). Still, “Children of Men,” a horribly bleak view of the future, was the best film of the year and should have received nominations for Best Picture, Best Director for Alfonso Cuaron, Best Actor for Clive Owen and Best Supporting Actor for Michael Caine (the best per-formance of the year by anyone).

p. Likewise, “Pan’s Labyrinth,” a gruesome adult fairy tale set in World War II Spain, should have been nominated for Best Picture, Best Director for Guillermo del Toro and Best Actress for twelve-year-old Ivana Baquero. As I said before, Leonardo DiCaprio should have been nominated for his role in “The Departed” instead of “Blood Diamond,” but I didn’t mention that his costar Matt Damon could have easily been nominated for either “The Departed” or for his amazingly controlled performance as a CIA agent in “The Good Shepherd.” Mark Wahlberg may have received the nomination for Best Supporting Actor for “The Departed,” but Jack Nicholson is the one who really deserved it, playing a mob boss who is starting to lose it.

p. As for the other major categories:
**Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, “Dreamgirls”**
**Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”**
**Best Foreign Film: “Pan’s Labyrinth”**
**Best Documentary: “An Inconvenient Truth”**
**Best Animated Film: “Cars”**

p. And there you have it. The predictions are in. Tune in Sunday and see how I did. You’re free to bet with me, but don’t blame me when the Academy empties our wallets with another shocking finish.

Ah, Rome. Its influence upon Western civilization — nay, the entire world — is incalculable. Its customs and social institutions have played a pivotal role in shaping many modern societies. Certainly, the sheer number of proverbs referring to the city is just one indication of the far-reaching effects its time in history has had on humanity. And now, part of that history has been made into yet another riveting TV miniseries.

p. “Rome” is not just a serialized “Gladiator,” or even a dully narrated, drawn-out historical documentary. This series combines the best elements of both, as it manages to fuse an intensely dramatic and visually stunning story with a keen respect for the historical realities of the time.

p. Jointly produced by HBO and the BBC, this eponymously-titled period drama covers the turbulent transition from the Roman Republic to the Roman Empire, just before the end of the first century BCE. Several perspectives are shown through interwoven plotlines of characters that hail from diverse sectors of society — noblemen, senators, soldiers, seedy criminals and more — many of whom eventually interact with and affect one another in some capacity despite their disparate social positions.

p. A good number of these stories will intrigue viewers (though some more than others), and the emotional landscapes traversed are as varied as the personalities covered. Any onlooker will become inescapably engrossed with the machinations of Atia of the Julii, played by Polly Walker (“Patriot Games”), the crafty niece of Julius Caesar who deftly manipulates friend and foe alike, even her children, to secure her own position in the upper echelons of power.

p. At the same time, Atia and her family’s fates become indelibly affected by the actions of two soldiers who would otherwise have no interaction with the Roman elite. This narrative technique makes for a complex and densely layered depiction of the intense political and social turmoil of the time.

p. Though the show covers many perspectives, the storyline focuses on the two aforementioned soldiers — the Lucius Vorenus and Titus Pullo, played by Kevin McKidd (“Kingdom of Heaven”) and Ray Stevenson (“King Arthur”), respectively — who, through either dumb luck or some otherwise unknown conspiring of the Fates, continually cross paths with more historically significant figures. Through these coincidental encounters, the two often manage to impact crucial political and military situations that are often beyond their comprehension.

p. At the show’s start, Vorenus is a tightly scrupled, respectable soldier, and his initially unwelcome companion Pullo pulls off the brutish, badass persona with an intense believability. Yet, as a testament to the show’s writing, these two, along with many other characters, change in many respects in response to the world-altering events of the time. Their realistic portrayal of two simple soldiers embroiled in an increasingly volatile political struggle serves as a steady grounding for the story.

p. The fickle fortunes of these characters — though at times requiring a momentary suspension of disbelief — and the impact it has on their development and relationships imbues the series with a touching human element. This, in effect, nicely balances the broad scope of the series. Not only are Vorenus and Pullo portrayed in a plausible light, but viewers are also given personal insights into every other character’s emotional involvement in the inevitable human drama of love, friendship and betrayal.

p. The first season covers the Gallic Wars of Gaius Julius Caesar, his political struggles with the Senate for power, and his eventual (this can’t be a spoiler, it’s history, right?) ascendancy to dictatorship over the weakening Roman Republic.

p. The second and final season, which premiered in January after a year’s hiatus, covers the aftermath of his assassination and the eventual rise of Rome’s first Emperor, the young son of Atia, Octavian, who is played by Max Pirkis (“Master and Commander”) in the first season and Simon Woods (“Pride and Prejudice”) in the second. As history buffs know, Octavian’s bitter power struggle with Marc Antony, depicted as a brutal but cunning commander by James Purefoy (“Vanity Fair”), will have powerful consequences for the fate of Rome.

p. In the most recent episode, Brutus, played by Tobias Menzies (“Casino Royale”), who is bent on restoring Rome to a republic, and his legions are destroyed in a crushing defeat at the Battle of Philippi. Before the battle, Antony and Octavian secretly make a temporary alliance to defeat this third force vying for Rome. Only in the next episode, which will skip a week in the schedule and premier Sunday, March 4 at 9 p.m., will we see if this alliance holds. Of course, you could always spoil the surprise by cracking open a book on ancient history.

p. Even those intimately familiar with Roman history will find themselves drawn to the series, identifying with the struggles, triumphs and sometimes confounding losses of the characters. There will certainly be at least one figure that viewers will find themselves rooting for — or against.

The year 2001 will always be remembered for the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001 and the beginning of the War on Terror. While one threat may have begun, another threat was brought down that year. On Feb. 21, 2001, Robert Hanssen — the biggest traitor in U.S. history — was convicted of espionage and brought to justice. The damage that Hanssen brought to the U.S. government has been estimated at several billion dollars.

p. Now, if the ending is already given away, why watch the film? Like “Titanic,” “Breach” is the kind of movie where the excitement lies in watching the buildup that leads to the inevitable conclusion. The film still has its share of twist and turns, and its riveting conclusion is well worthwhile.

p. Aspiring FBI agent Eric O’Neill (Ryan Philippe, “Crash”) has been given the task of exposing his boss, Hanssen (Chris Cooper, “Syriana”), for selling secrets to the Soviet Union. Over 50 people had been assigned over the past decade to bring down Hanssen, and all were unsuccessful. To add to his insurmountable task, O’Neill must also face problems with his marriage and his loyalty to his country.

p. The acting sets the film apart from other recent political thrillers such as “The Sentinel.” Philippe and Cooper are superb. For Cooper, it’s nice to see him in a starring role after being a supporting player in so many films. It is surprising that he doesn’t get more offers like this; his portrayal of the psychotic yet sympathetic Robert Hanssen should get him a few more. This is another commendable job choice by Philippe, following roles in “Flags of our Fathers” and “Crash.” The cast is nicely rounded out by Laura Linney (“Kinsey”), who plays stoic agent Kate Burroughs, the head of the investigation, and Dennis Haysbert (“24”), as Dan Plesac, another head agent.

p. Relatively new director Billy Ray does a fine job with the film. His only previous credit is the Hayden Christenson journalist flick “Shattered Glass,” which dealt with similar themes as does “Breach.” There isn’t anything groundbreaking about Ray’s work, but, if anything, it is above average. The music in the film is about the same — nothing extravagant, but it doesn’t hinder the product.

p. The movie’s best asset is its characters, by which it lives and dies. “Breach” does something a lot of movies do not seem to do anymore — it takes its time to fully develop the film’s protagonist and the antagonist. O’Neill is the young hotshot trying to make a name for himself but is thrust into a “David and Goliath” battle with the crafty double-agent Hanssen. The case gets even more interesting as O’Neill and Hanssen develop a bond.

p. In a Hollywood where movies have an excess of unnecessary drivel, “Breach” takes advantage of the simple elements of filmmaking; solid directing, combined with superb acting and an easy-to-follow script results in an end product that proves appealing to the masses. “Breach” is the rare political thriller that lets its dialogue do the talking and lets its actors tell the story, instead of relying on unnecessary car chases and big explosions.

One of the worst feelings is to walk into a movie with the highest of expectations, only to come out feeling like you wasted two hours of your life. Don’t get me wrong — I wasn’t expecting an Oscar winning film from a Hugh Grant romantic comedy. We have seen the formula many times before, but in the past it worked a whole lot better. I’ll put it this way: if you asked me to describe “Music and Lyrics” with a single word, it would have to be “unbearable.”

p. I hardly know where to begin. There is a complete lack of chemistry between Hugh Grant and Drew Barrymore; there was just nothing there. In a romantic comedy, that means the film is pretty much doomed before it starts. The love story only served to bore and depress. At no point did I care whether the two characters ended up together, even though it was clear they would.

p. Even as individuals, both characters are insanely annoying. Grant’s Alex Fletcher is an ’80s has-been rocker who never recovered after his bandmate left to become a big star. Barrymore plays Sophia Fisher, the author of a best-selling book about her numerous failures as a writer.

p. Grant is at his worst, far removed from the performances we loved in films like “Notting Hill” and “About a Boy.” He looks old and washed-out, clearly from a generation way before that of his female co-star. It seems he is on his way to becoming the very has-been that he plays in the film. Barrymore also fails miserably in her role, managing to be more annoying than ever.

p. As an audience, we are clearly meant to find Sophie’s quirky and offbeat personality endearing. Instead, we just want to smack her in the face. She appears desperate and needy, and is never able to gain the sympathy of the audience. Both characters are empty and uninspiring. Neither of them confront the demons of their pasts — they only end up with each other in order to bond over their mutual fear of failure and rejection.

p. The one highlight of the film is Grant’s absolutely hilarious stage scenes. If fans love one thing about him, it is his constant willingness to make a complete fool of himself on screen. Grant’s dance moves are reminiscent of that unforgettable scene in “Love Actually.” Fantastic film — you will be on the floor laughing at his rendition of an ’80s music video for the song “Pop! Goes My Heart.” The video makes an excellent mockery of every cheesy pop song that none of us will admit we love. However, despite Grant’s talent for shaking his ass for the camera, it is nowhere near enough to save this film.

p. “Music and Lyrics” fails to achieve the basic necessities of any good romantic comedy. Stay home and save your money; this film is definitely not worth the ticket price.

**McSpinoff in the works**

p. Initially hated by Mere-Dere fans for keeping the destined-to-be-together-forever “Grey’s Anatomy” couple apart, Kate Walsh’s Addison Montgomery quickly became a show sweetheart. ‘Grey’s’ creator Shonda Rhimes is in talks with Walsh to create a spinoff that would center on Dr. Montgomery. Plans are still vague: no decision has been made on where the show will even be set. Whatever the outcome, let’s hope Addison can hold our interest without being so dark and twisty.

p. **Britney’s prerogative**

p. She did it again — for the third time within a week, newly bald Britney Spears has checked into rehab. She enrolled one more time at the Promise Malibu Treatment Center, which specializes in drug and alcohol abuse, in a 30-45 day program — a little far-fetched, considering her first two rehab stints were both less than 24 hours each. This comes right as her court date to contest K-Fed’s custody petition approaches. Who knew “Lucky” was such a prophecy?

p. **Drunk much?**

p. Crazy cool Paula Abdul continues to deny rumors that she regularly attends interviews and work drunk, going as far as to claim she’s never been drunk in her life. She was surely straight up when she filmed clips that surfaced on the internet that showed her squirming in her seat and slurring her words. According to the “American Idol” judge, she has never been drunk or done recreational drugs, a claim ‘Idol’ executive producer Nigel Lythgoe confirms.

p. **Bitter Kim bashes Eminem**

p. Always classy Eminem has reacted to comments his ex-wife made last week about the star. Kim Mathers discussed intimate details of the couple’s relationship, saying “he’s not very well-endowed” and that the sex was “bad.” Eminem responded, saying “It’s a shame that I’ve moved on and Kim hasn’t. Her ongoing press campaign is doing nothing but harm to the children, and for that I feel truly sorry.”

It’s Feb. 23, and as we approach the month of March, spring break is already creeping into the minds of scores of exam-weary students.

p. One problem: you haven’t made plans yet.

p. Sure, it’s been on your to do list for a while now, but somehow it just keeps getting pushed back in favor of the reading you can never seem to finish. Or perhaps Mug Night is the culprit. Regardless, with two weeks to go until the big week, you need a plan and fast.

p. A quick online check reveals a new problem: airplane ticket prices have skyrocketed and cruises have filled their guest lists. What is an fun-starved student to do?

p. Luckily, you’re almost certainly not the only poor, unfortunate soul in this dilemma. What would the point of this article be if that as the case? And lucky for you, there are several options still open.

p. Travelocity.com may be telling you that the beaches of sunny Florida are out of your financial reach this late in the game. If you’re lucky, you might be able to find a roundtrip ticket to Florida or Cancun in the neighborhood of $400 to $600. But that doesn’t take into account hotel, food or, perhaps most importantly, beverage.

p. If you are set on the beach experience, you might want to look to the Outer Banks along the Atlantic coast of North Carolina. This is not peak season right now, so it’s likely that there are several decent houses still available for the week, not to mention at a discounted rate. Sure, the water may be cold, but with a handful of friends, you’re almost guaranteed a stress-free week.

p. If you can’t find what you’re looking for in the Outer Banks, but don’t want to give up on the beach, check up north in Delaware. Like the Outer Banks, the beaches along Delaware’s coast are very popular summer vacation spots, but in the off-season, realtors are more interested in filling as many rental houses as they can, which means good prices. Although the commute is a bit farther from Williamsburg, Delaware has the added advantage of no sales tax, making shopping a popular pastime.

p. So what if the beach isn’t your thing in early March? Perhaps a road trip would better suit your preferences. Like the movie of the same name, hilarity is almost guaranteed to ensue on any trip involving friends on the open road. Bonus points if you have a far-fetched goal, like retrieving a poorly conceived revenge sex tape accidentally sent to your girlfriend across the country.

p. More likely, though, your trip could involve several stops, at which you spend a day or so before moving on to the next. A good way to accomplish this is to string together home cities of several friends. That way, you’ve got a guide and free lodging.

p. Another option is the marathon car trip with a single destination where you stay for a few mostly sleepless nights before packing up and returning home. An excellent destination for this latter form of road tripping is Montreal. Roughly a 12-hour drive from the Williamsburg area, Montreal has many attractions, especially for the under-21, crowd given the fact that the legal drinking age is 18. If you’re among the age challenged, Montreal may be the perfect city for you; that is, if you can stand the frigid temperatures.

p. If you’re simply interested in escaping the wintry weather, south is probably the only direction to go. Baseball fans know that Major League Baseball’s spring training is underway.

p. By the time break rolls around, the pre-season exhibition games will have started. If you’re a sports fan, entertain the thought of road tripping down to catch a few games. Tickets are generally easy to come by and are far cheaper than those you’ll find during the regular season. The games offer a far more intimate setting than you’ll find in big league stadiums and the experience is entirely different than a regular Major League game.

p. For a shorter road trip, find your closest Northern Virginia friend (you’ve got to have at least a few) and suggest a trip to the nation’s capital. Washington, D.C. is a city full of touristy activities. The museums that make up the National Mall are all free, as are the monuments and art galleries. Other popular museums, such as the Holocaust Museum and the Spy Museum, are also possible stops. However, take note that the Spy Museum has an entry fee, while the Holocaust Museum only allows a set number of people inside for a given time slot.

p. In addition to its regular attractions, the District is also currently hosting the Shakespeare In Washington festival at the Kennedy Center. The festival features interpretations of the Bard’s work through the media of theater, music, dance, film and art. So, if “The Tempest” or “Romeo and Juliet” are your cup of tea, perhaps this is the vacation destination for you. For more information on the Kennedy Center’s Shakespeare programming, check out Kennedy-Center.org.

p. Washington will also play host to the Washington, D.C. International Food and Wine Festival March 9 through March 11 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, which is close to the National Mall. Ticket prices are a bit steep at $65 for a single day ticket or $85 for both days, but the festival promises to be a high-end event, and should be considered by the aspiring gourmets among us. For more information on this event, check Wine-expos.com/dc.

p. For those looking to escape the city and civilization, this next trip might be more up your alley. Check out a few backpacks and some camping equipment from the Rec Center and go backpacking through the Shenandoah Valley. There are seemingly endless trails running through the mountains and the valley, leaving the possibilities for an outdoorsy trip completely up in the air.

p. While the weather will probably be chilly, taking such a trip will help you escape from the stresses of academia, at least for the week you’ll be trundling through the wilderness. Be advised, though, that there are some costs associated with this trip, including the equipment rental, passes to get into the park and overnight permits.

p. With spring break arriving in two weeks, the time to finalize your plans is now. Use one of these ideas, modify one to make your own plans or simply come up with one of your own. Whatever you do, don’t be the only person at the Green Leafe for Mug Night come March 11.