The Pressbox Blog: Men’s basketball conference tournament scenarios

With one game to play, the CAA tournament pairings are close to finalized. Here’s what the Tribe will face depending on what happens Saturday after the College plays its regular-season finale against Georgia State at Kaplan Arena.

Conference standings (as of Feb. 24, 2012):

Team CAA record      Overall record     
Drexel 15-2 24-5
VCU 14-3 24-6
George Mason 14-3 23-7
Old Dominion 13-4 19-11
Delaware 11-6 16-12
Georgia State 10-7 19-10
Northeastern 9-8 13-15
UNC-Wilmington 5-12 9-19
JMU 4-13 11-19
William and Mary      4-13 6-24
Hofstra 2-15 9-21
Towson 1-16 1-29


If the season ended today, the Tribe would be the No. 9 seed based on having the second tiebreaker over James Madison (the two teams split their head-to-head matchups, which would be the first tiebreaker). Thus, a JMU loss to Towson would clinch the No. 9 spot regardless of how the College fares against Georgia State Saturday. However, even if the Tribe beats Georgia State, it could fall to the No. 10 seed if JMU wins and UNC-Wilmington falls to Hofstra. If the College and JMU won while UNC-W lost, the Tribe would fall in the group-play tiebreaker having lost twice to UNC-W. Despite being just a game behind UNC-W, the College can’t reach the No. 8 spot because of the two losses to UNC-W.

With Tribe win over Georgia State: College secures No. 9 seed with UNC-W win regardless of what JMU does. Tribe falls to No. 10 seed with JMU win and UNC-W loss.

With Tribe loss to Georgia State: College secures No. 9 seed with JMU loss, falls to No. 10 spot with JMU win.

If No. 9 seed, the Tribe would face UNC-W in the first round of the conference tournament. The College fell to UNC-W twice during the regular season. The first meeting, in Williamsburg Jan. 21, was tight as the Tribe lost 68-66. The second game, in Wilmington Feb. 4, was slightly more lopsided as UNC-W won 81-68. If the College got past UNC-W, it would then take on Drexel, who handed the Tribe a 64-48 loss at Kaplan Arena Jan. 23 before beating the College by just two, 63-61, on Valentine’s Day in Philadelphia.

If No. 10 seed, the Tribe would take on Northeastern in the opening round. In the first meeting between the two, Northeastern notched a 64-50 win over the College Jan. 14 in Boston. When they met in Williamsburg Feb. 11, the Tribe handed Northeastern a 79-54 beatdown. If the College advanced to the second round, it would then take on either VCU or George Mason, depending on who beats the other in the regular-season finale in Richmond (and thus locks up the No. 2 seed). If George Mason beats VCU then the Tribe would take on the Patriots, who beat the College in their only meeting, 70-56 Jan 2. in Norfolk. If VCU downs George Mason Saturday, then the Tribe would take on the Rams, who beat the College twice in close games (69-68 in overtime in Richmond Jan. 19 and 87-78 in Williamsburg Feb. 1).

Photos from the Tribe’s last game, a 75-71 win over Hofstra at home Wednesday:


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